SUMMARY

1. In mid-1995 there were 250 Consultant Neurologists in the United Kingdom, a population ratio of 1:233 600. (Page S67).

2. Hitherto the Association of British Neurologists has regarded 1:200 000 as an appropriate target. Daily experience suggests that this target is too low and the considerable increase in the number of new consultant posts in recent times suggests the same.

3. The number of Consultant Neurologists that are actually required in the United Kingdom can be calculated. This document illustrates the methodology that has been employed.

4. The calculations (pages S67-S70) take account of the following:

• the time that Consultant Neurologists have available for out-patient work,

• the number of patients that can be seen in that time,

• existing data on the distribution of patients with different conditions in the out-patient practices of Consultant Neurologists,

• the epidemiology of certain neurological diseases.

5. It has been concluded (page S71) that the ideal number of Consultant Neurologists that are required is approximately 1:100 000.

6. If this expansion in consultant numbers is to be realised within a reasonable timescale, then there has to be an expansion in the number of trainees in neurology (pages S71-S72).

• In the near future there will be 158 trainees in the United Kingdom. If there is no further expansion in these numbers, then the target of 1:100 000 will not be achieved until the year 2014.

• An increase of one extra trainee per year will allow the national ratio of 1:100 000 to be achieved in the year 2010.

• With two extra trainees per year the target will be reached in the year 2008.

7. Overall, it is concluded that there is a national shortage of Consultant Neurologists and that a considerable increase in numbers is required. To service this increase, there must be more trainees.

1. INTRODUCTION

Outline of the problem and a summary of the solution

In the middle of 1995 there …