Table 3
Logistic regression analyses of clinical outcome
| Change in deviance* | p Value change deviance | Overall accuracy (%)† | Sensitivity (%) | Specificity (%) | PPV (%) | NPV (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| *Change in deviance is the change in deviance from maximum deviance (step 1) or the previous step (steps 2 and 3); †the overall accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV were calculated on the basis of the predicted probability of outcome: Alzheimer type dementia or cognitive decline were considered to be predicted by the model if the predicted probability of Alzheimer type dementia or cognitive decline was ≥0.5. | |||||||
| HC, hippocampus; PHG, parahippocampal gyrus; MTA, medial temporal lobe atrophy; PPV, positive predictive value; NPV, negative predictive value; –,could not be calculated because no patients were predicted to have Alzheimer type dementia at follow up. | |||||||
| AD as outcome: | |||||||
| Step 1 Age | 3.2 | 0.07 | 78 | 0 | 100 | – | 78 |
| Step 2 Delayed recall | 3.2 | 0.07 | 74 | 17 | 90 | 33 | 79 |
| Step 3 HC | 5.1 | 0.02 | 81 | 50 | 90 | 60 | 86 |
| Step 3 PHG | 1.4 | 0.25 | 74 | 33 | 86 | 40 | 82 |
| Step 3 MTA score | 5.5 | 0.02 | 81 | 50 | 90 | 60 | 86 |
| Cognitive decline as outcome: | |||||||
| Step 1 Age | 4.6 | 0.03 | 71 | 44 | 87 | 67 | 72 |
| Step 2 Delayed recall | 2.6 | 0.11 | 71 | 73 | 67 | 60 | 79 |
| Step 3 HC | 24.6 | <0.001 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Step 3 PHG | 5.2 | 0.02 | 75 | 56 | 87 | 71 | 76 |
| Step 3 MTA score | 5.4 | 0.02 | 83 | 78 | 87 | 78 | 87 |
