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J Neurol Neurosurg Psychiatry 75:1100-1106 doi:10.1136/jnnp.2003.028076
  • Paper

Premorbid cognitive testing predicts the onset of dementia and Alzheimer’s disease better than and independently of APOE genotype

Table 3

 Odds ratios for independent associations between test variables and dementia generated from logistic regression models used to predict probabilities of dementia caseness

Tests+ Model 1 Model 2 Model 3
FH+Age† FH+Age+Cognitive tests† FH+Age+Cognitive tests+APOE genotype†
†With 95% confidence intervals.
FH, family history; NART, new adult reading test; PALT, paired associate learning test; RPM, Raven’s progressive matrices; TMT-A, trail making test A.
FH <0.78 1
Loading 0.79 to 0.89 1.40 (0.57 to 3.46) 1.43 (0.56 to 3.68) 1.34 (0.51 to 3.49)
0.90 to 1.00 2.12 (0.90 to 4.97) 2.31 (0.94 to 5.65) 2.18 (0.88 to 5.43)
Age (years) 65.0 to 68.9 1
69.0 to 71.8 1.44 (0.64 to 3.23) 1.60 (0.68 to 3.75) 1.71 (0.72 to 4.04)
71.9 to 75.0 1.10 (0.47 to 2.62) 0.99 (0.40 to 2.45) 1.13 (0.45 to 2.83)
TMT-A <40 s 1
40 to 56 s 3.30 (1.00 to 10.8) 3.49 (1.05 to 11.6)
>56 s 4.78 (1.48 to 15.4) 4.93 (1.51 to 16.8)
PALT <17 1
17 or 17.5 1.16 (0.46 to 2.92) 1.15 (0.45 to 2.94)
18 1.24 (0.47 to 3.24) 1.24 (0.47 to 3.30)
RPM <14 1
14 to 17 0.39 (0.17 to 0.90) 0.41 (0.17 to 0.97)
18 to 24 0.40 (0.15 to 1.04) 0.42 (0.16 to 1.11)
NART <27 1
27 to 37 0.74 (0.31 to 1.78) 0.69 (0.28 to 1.70)
38 to 50 0.75 (0.28 to 2.00) 0.70 (0.26 to 1.90)
APOE 2/2 or 2/3 1
3/3 1.66 (0.36 to 7.78)
4/* 4.00 (0.84 to 19.0)
Step χ2 4.0 (4 df) 21.3 (8 df) 6.8 (2 df)
p = 0.40 p = 0.006 p = 0.03
Model χ2 4.0 (4 df) 25.3 (12 df) 32.2 (14 df)
p = 0.40 p = 0.01 0.004

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