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Predictors of survival after haemorrhagic stroke in a multi-ethnic population: The South London Stroke Register (SLSR)
  1. Shah Jalal Sarker (shah_jalal.sarker{at}kcl.ac.uk)
  1. King's College London, United Kingdom
    1. Peter U Heuschmann (peter.heuschmann{at}kcl.ac.uk)
    1. King's College London, United Kingdom
      1. Ilse Burger (ilse.burger{at}kcl.ac.uk)
      1. King's College London, United Kingdom
        1. Charles DA Wolfe (charles.wolfe{at}kcl.ac.uk)
        1. King's College London, United Kingdom
          1. Anthony G Rudd (anthony.rudd{at}kcl.ac.uk)
          1. St. Thomas' Hospital, London, United Kingdom
            1. Nigel C Smeeton (nigel.smeeton{at}kcl.ac.uk)
            1. King's College London, United Kingdom
              1. Andre Michael Toschke (michael.toschke{at}kcl.ac.uk)
              1. King's College London, United Kingdom

                Abstract

                Objectives: To identify the predictors of long-term survival after haemorrhagic stroke.

                Methods: Data were collected within the population-based South London Stroke Register covering a multiethnic source population of 271,817 inhabitants (2001) in South London. Death data were collected at post stroke follow-up. The impact of patients’ demographic and clinical characteristics, ethnic origin, pre-stroke risk factors, and acute treatment on long-term survival were investigated. Survival methods included Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox’s proportional hazards model.

                Results: Between January 1995 and December 2004 a total of 566 patients with first ever-haemorrhagic stroke (395 primary intracerebral haemorrhage; 171 subarachnoid haemorrhage) were registered. Mean age was 62.3 years; 365 (64.5%) were white, 132 (23.3%) of black and 69 (12.2%) of other or unknown ethnic origin; there were 1340 person-years of follow up. After multivariable adjustment, age (p<0.001) and having diabetes (hazard ratio [HR], 1.69; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06-2.70) were associated with increased risk of death. Patients with severe stroke (Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) < 9) had an increased risk of death (HR, 6.5; 95% CI, 4.68-8.90) compared to those with mild stroke (GCS>12). Treatment on a stroke unit reduced long-term risk of death (HR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.50-0.98). Black patients had a reduced risk of death (HR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.42-0.92) compared to white patients.

                Conclusions: Age, diabetes, stroke severity and stroke unit care influenced long-term risk of death after haemorrhagic stroke. An independent survival advantage was observed in black patients. These factors can be utilised for clinical predictions but the cause of the observations in black patients remain unclear.

                • Haemorrhage, survival, risk factors, ethnicity, disease-register

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