How do American stroke risk functions perform in a Western European population?

Neuroepidemiology. 2004 Sep-Oct;23(5):247-53. doi: 10.1159/000079951.

Abstract

Objectives: We evaluated the predictive performance of the stroke risk functions from the Framingham and the Cardiovascular Health Study in a population-based study in The Netherlands.

Methods: We assessed how well the functions could estimate the number of strokes in the Rotterdam Study, and how well they could discriminate between high- and low-risk persons.

Results: Both functions predicted the number of stroke cases reasonably well, except in persons with a predicted 5-year risk higher than 5%, where they overestimated the risk. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve was 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.78) for both functions.

Conclusions: Stroke risk functions developed in US populations predict the number of strokes reasonably well in elderly Western European persons at low or modest risk for stroke. The functions can be a useful tool to discriminate between persons at high or low risk for stroke.

Publication types

  • Evaluation Study
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Cardiovascular Diseases / complications
  • Cardiovascular Diseases / prevention & control
  • Diabetes Complications
  • Diabetes Mellitus / prevention & control
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Hypertension / complications
  • Hypertension / prevention & control
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Netherlands
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Prospective Studies
  • ROC Curve
  • Reproducibility of Results
  • Risk Assessment*
  • Risk Factors
  • Stroke / etiology*
  • United States