Objective We aim to search for predictors of survival among clinical and brain 18F-FDG positron emission tomography (PET) metabolic features in our cohort of patients with multiple system atrophy (MSA).
Methods We included patients with a ‘probable’ MSA diagnosis for whom a clinical evaluation and a brain PET were performed early in the course of the disease (median 3 years, IQR 2–5). A retrospective analysis was conducted using standardised data collection. Brain PET metabolism was characterised using the Automated Anatomical Labelling Atlas. A Cox model was applied to look for factors influencing survival. Kaplan-Meier method estimated the survival rate. We proposed to develop a predictive ‘risk score’, categorised into low-risk and high-risk groups, using significant variables entered in multivariate Cox regression analysis.
Results Eighty-five patients were included. The overall median survival was 8 years (CI 6.64 to 9.36). Poor prognostic factors were orthostatic hypotension (HR=6.04 (CI 1.58 to 23.12), p=0.009), stridor (HR=3.41 (CI 1.31 to 8.87), p=0.012) and glucose PET hypometabolism in the left insula (HR=0.78 (CI 0.66 to 0.92), p=0.004). Good prognostic factors were time to diagnosis (HR=0.68 (CI 0.54 to 0.86), p=0.001) and use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) (HR=0.17 (CI 0.06 to 0.46), p<0.001). The risk score revealed a 5-year gap separating the median survival of the two groups obtained (5 years vs 10 years; HR=5.82 (CI 2.94 to 11.49), p<0.001).
Conclusion The clinical prognosis factors we have described support published studies. Here, we also suggest that brain PET is of interest for prognosis assessment and in particular in the search for left insula hypometabolism. Moreover, SSRIs are a potential drug candidate to slow the progression of the disease.
Data availability statement
Data are available upon reasonable request.
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Contributors SG: conception and design of the study, acquisition and analysis of data, drafting the manuscript and figures, approval of the final draft. MB: analysis of data, drafting the manuscript and figures, approval of the final draft. TW, FF: acquisition of data, approval of the final draft. J-PA: acquisition of data, drafting the manuscript, approval of the final draft. EG, AE: acquisition and analysis of data, drafting the manuscript, approval of the final draft.
Funding The authors have not declared a specific grant for this research from any funding agency in the public, commercial or not-for-profit sectors.
Competing interests None declared.
Provenance and peer review Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed.
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