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Considerations for causality assessment of neurological and neuropsychiatric complications of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines: from cerebral venous sinus thrombosis to functional neurological disorder
  1. Matt Butler1,
  2. Arina Tamborska2,3,
  3. Greta K Wood2,3,
  4. Mark Ellul4,
  5. Rhys H Thomas5,6,
  6. Ian Galea7,
  7. Sarah Pett8,
  8. Bhagteshwar Singh3,
  9. Tom Solomon4,
  10. Thomas Arthur Pollak9,
  11. Benedict D Michael2,3,
  12. Timothy R Nicholson10
  1. 1Institute of Psychiatry Psychology and Neuroscience, London, UK
  2. 2Department of Neurology, The Walton Centre NHS Foundation Trust, Liverpool, UK
  3. 3University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
  4. 4Institute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
  5. 5Department of Neuroscience, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, Tyne and Wear, UK
  6. 6Translational and Clinical Research Institute, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
  7. 7Faculty of Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
  8. 8MRC CTU at UCL, Institute for Global Health and Institute for Clinical Trials Methodology, University College London, London, UK
  9. 9Department of Psychological Medicine, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London, UK
  10. 10King's College London, London, UK
  1. Correspondence to Dr Timothy R Nicholson, King's College London, London WC2R 2LS, UK; timothy.nicholson{at}kcl.ac.uk

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Introduction

The scientific community rapidly responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by developing novel SARS-CoV-2 vaccines (table 1). As of early June 2021, an estimated 2 billion doses have been administered worldwide.1 Neurological adverse events following immunisation (AEFI), such as cerebral venous sinus thrombosis and demyelinating episodes, have been reported. In some countries, these have led to the temporary halting of both vaccine trials and roll-out programmes. In the absence of clear evidence of causal associations between the vaccine and adverse events, or the rarity of the AEFIs themselves, programmes have thus far been restarted, although sometimes with modifications to recommendations.2

View this table:
Table 1

SARS-CoV-2 vaccines approved for use by at least one regulatory body at the time of submission (early June 2021)71

Transient influenza-like symptoms such as headache, myalgia and fatigue have been reported in up to 5% of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine recipients in clinical trials,3 4 although these symptoms often indicate an appropriate immune response to vaccination.5 More severe potential adverse effects in the open-label phase of vaccine roll-outs are being collected through national surveillance systems. In the USA, roughly 372 adverse events have been reported per million doses, which is a lower rate than expected based on the clinical trials.6

In the UK, adverse events are reported via the Coronavirus Yellow Card reporting website. As of early June 2021, approximately 250 000 Yellow Cards have been submitted, equating to around three to seven Yellow Cards per 1000 doses.7 For comparison, the 2010 Pandemrix vaccination had a rate of around 0.6 Yellow Card submissions per 1000 doses.8 Increased pharmacovigilance surrounding SARS-CoV-2 vaccinations may lead to surveillance bias,9 safety alerts may lead to notoriety bias10 and recall bias may also occur. Nevertheless, with large numbers of people being vaccinated, often with a two-dose schedule, rare complications …

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Footnotes

  • MB and AT are joint first authors.

  • BDM and TRN are joint senior authors.

  • Twitter @mattbutlerpsych, @Tim_R_Nicholson

  • Contributors MB and AT produced the first draft. MB, AT, GKW, ME, RHT, IG, SP, TS, TAP, BDM and TRN significantly contributed to the first draft. BS contributed additional content post peer review. MB, AT, GKW, ME, RHT, IG, SP, BS, TS and TAP all reviewed final manuscript. BDM and TRN provided supervisory input and approved final manuscript.

  • Funding MB is an National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Academic Clinical Fellow (ACF-2019-17-008). TAP is supported by a NIHR Clinical Lectureship. TS is supported by the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections (Grant Nos. IS-HPU-1112-10117 and NIHR200907), NIHR Programme Grant for Applied Research (No. RP-PG-0108-10,048), NIHR Global Health Research Group on Brain Infections (No. 17/63/110) and the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program ZikaPLAN (Preparedness Latin America Network), grant agreement No. 734584. BDM is supported to conduct COVID-19 neuroscience research by the UKRI/MRC (MR/V03605X/1); for additional neurological inflammation research due to viral infection, BDM is also supported by grants from the MRC/UKRI (MR/V007181//1), MRC (MR/T028750/1) and Wellcome (ISSF201902/3).

  • Competing interests None declared.

  • Provenance and peer review Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed.