Background Vitamin D (VitD) affects the risk of multiple sclerosis (MS), but the impact on disease activity is controversial. We assessed whether VitD is associated with the No-Evidence of Disease Activity-3 (NEDA-3) status at 2 years from disease-modifying treatment (DMT) start, and whether this association is causal or the result of confounding factors. Furthermore, we explored if a genetic predisposition to higher VitD levels affects the risk of disease activity.

Methods 230 untreated relapsing-remitting MS patients underwent serum 25-OH-vitamin-D measurement, and the association between seasonally adjusted VitD and disease activity was tested. Modelling a Polygenic Risk Score from a Genome-Wide Association Study on ~400 000 individuals, we studied the impact of genetic predisposition to higher VitD on the NEDA-3 status in 1408 independent MS patients. Two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) was used to assess causality.

Results Lower baseline VitD was associated with decreased probability of NEDA-3 at 2 years (p=0.019). Particularly, VitD levels <20 ng/mL conferred an over twofold risk of disease activity (OR 2.36, 95% CI 1.30 to 3.88, p=0.0037). Genetic predisposition to higher VitD levels was associated with delayed age at MS onset (p=0.018) and with a higher probability of NEDA-3 status (p=0.034). MR confirmed causality between VitD and the risk of disease activity (p=0.041).

Conclusions VitD levels before DMT start affect the risk of disease activity in MS. Genetic predisposition to higher VitD levels confers a lower risk of disease activity and is associated with delayed MS onset. Our work prompts future prospective studies regarding VitD supplementation and lifestyle interventions to hamper disease activity in MS.