Table 3

Logistic regression analyses of clinical outcome

Change in deviance*p Value change devianceOverall accuracy (%)†Sensitivity (%)Specificity (%)PPV (%)NPV (%)
*Change in deviance is the change in deviance from maximum deviance (step 1) or the previous step (steps 2 and 3); †the overall accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV were calculated on the basis of the predicted probability of outcome: Alzheimer type dementia or cognitive decline were considered to be predicted by the model if the predicted probability of Alzheimer type dementia or cognitive decline was ≥0.5.
HC, hippocampus; PHG, parahippocampal gyrus; MTA, medial temporal lobe atrophy; PPV, positive predictive value; NPV, negative predictive value; –,could not be calculated because no patients were predicted to have Alzheimer type dementia at follow up.
AD as outcome:
    Step 1 Age3.20.0778010078
    Step 2 Delayed recall3.20.077417903379
    Step 3 HC5.10.028150906086
    Step 3 PHG1.40.257433864082
    Step 3 MTA score5.50.028150906086
Cognitive decline as outcome:
    Step 1 Age4.60.037144876772
    Step 2 Delayed recall2.60.117173676079
    Step 3 HC24.6<0.001100100100100100
    Step 3 PHG5.20.027556877176
    Step 3 MTA score5.40.028378877887