Table 3

Logistic regression analyses of clinical outcome

	Change in deviance*	p Value change deviance	Overall accuracy (%)†	Sensitivity (%)	Specificity (%)	PPV (%)	NPV (%)
*Change in deviance is the change in deviance from maximum deviance (step 1) or the previous step (steps 2 and 3); †the overall accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV were calculated on the basis of the predicted probability of outcome: Alzheimer type dementia or cognitive decline were considered to be predicted by the model if the predicted probability of Alzheimer type dementia or cognitive decline was ≥0.5.
HC, hippocampus; PHG, parahippocampal gyrus; MTA, medial temporal lobe atrophy; PPV, positive predictive value; NPV, negative predictive value; –,could not be calculated because no patients were predicted to have Alzheimer type dementia at follow up.
AD as outcome:
Step 1 Age	3.2	0.07	78	0	100	–	78
Step 2 Delayed recall	3.2	0.07	74	17	90	33	79
Step 3 HC	5.1	0.02	81	50	90	60	86
Step 3 PHG	1.4	0.25	74	33	86	40	82
Step 3 MTA score	5.5	0.02	81	50	90	60	86
Cognitive decline as outcome:
Step 1 Age	4.6	0.03	71	44	87	67	72
Step 2 Delayed recall	2.6	0.11	71	73	67	60	79
Step 3 HC	24.6	<0.001	100	100	100	100	100
Step 3 PHG	5.2	0.02	75	56	87	71	76
Step 3 MTA score	5.4	0.02	83	78	87	78	87