Table 1

Definitions of the variables collected

VariableDefinitionUnassessable data
MRC, Medical Research Council; BP, blood pressure; GCS, Glasgow coma score; TACS, total anterior circulation stroke; LACS, lacunar stroke.
*The Orpington model comprises the variables of the Edinburgh model plus the Abbreviated Mental Test score.
Our simple models18
    Age(Date of stroke onset - date of birth) (y)Not applicable
    Living alone pre-strokeNo other person living permanently with the person before the strokeCoded yes
    Independent pre-strokeIndependent in activities of daily living (Oxford Handicap Score < 3) before strokeCoded yes
    Normal verbal GCSPatient oriented in time, place and personCoded no
    Lift both armsAble to lift both arms against gravity to 90 degrees (that is, MRC score 3 or more)Coded no
    Able to walkAble to walk without the help of another person (can use walking aid if needed)Coded no
Other models and variables
    Urinary incontinenceIncontinent of urine since stroke or catheterised or penile sheathCoded no
    Guy’s model25
        Loss of consciousness at onsetLoss of consciousness at onset of strokeCoded no
        DrowsyDrowsy or comatoseNot applicable
        Complete limb paralysisPower in worst limb MRC 0 or 1Coded no
        TACSHemiplegia and hemianopia and either dysphasia or other higher cortical dysfunctionNot applicable
        Motor LACSMotor hemideficit with or without sensory loss but no hemianopia or higher cortical featuresNot applicable
    Edinburgh model26
        Arm function0=No weaknessCoded as 4
1=Able to lift to shoulder height and resist active movement but weak
2=Able to lift to shoulder height but cannot resist active movement
3=Able to move arm but cannot lift it to shoulder height
4=No flicker of contraction in affected arm
        Arm proprioception0=Finds thumb of affected arm with other hand with eyes closed accurately first timeCoded as 3
1=Finds thumb within 5 seconds having missed it initially
2=Finds affected arm and then follows this up to affected thumb
3=Unable to find thumb
        Postural capability0=Able to walk without human assistance for about 10 feetCoded as 3
1=Able to maintain standing position without support but cannot walk without human assistance
2=Able to sit with legs over side of bed without support but cannot stand
3=Unable to sit without help
    Orpington model27*
        Abbreviated Mental Test Score0=score 10Coded as 3
1=score 8 to 9
2=score 5 to 7
3=score 0 to 4