Table 2

Univariate analyses: cumulative risk of stroke recurrence

Cumulative risk of recurrence, % (95% CI)
1 year5 years10 years
Total7.1 (6.0 to 8.3)16.2 (14.4 to 18.1)24.5 (21.3 to 27.9)
Age group
    >656.2 (4.6 to 8.3)12.6 (10.1 to 15.6)17.2 (13.8 to 21.4)
    65 to 746.6 (4.8 to 9.0)16.2 (13.1 to 20.0)29.6 (23.4 to 36.8)
    >758.4 (6.6 to 10.6)20.4 (17.0 to 24.5)30.1 (21.3 to 41.4)
Gender
    Male6.0 (4.7 to 7.6)15.5 (13.1 to 18.2)22.9 (19.1 to 27.4)
    Female8.4 (6.8 to 10.4)17.1 (14.4 to 20.1)26.4 (21.5 to 32.2)
Ethnicity
    White7.4 (6.2 to 8.9)16.1 (14.0 to 18.5)25.1 (21.2 to 29.5)
    Black6.1 (4.1 to 8.8)16.7 (13.0 to 21.3)23.7 (18.4 to 30.2)
    Other7.7 (4.1 to 14.2)15.7 (9.7 to 24.6)20.8 (12.9 to 32.6)
Socio-economic status
    Non-manual6.5 (4.7 to 8.8)14.7 (11.7 to 18.3)26.3 (20.6 to 33.3)
    Manual7.7 (6.3 to 9.3)17.5 (15.1 to 20.2)24.9 (21.0 to 29.3)
    Unknown5.9 (3.2 to 11.0)14.5 (9.3 to 22.3)17.0 (10.6 to 26.5)
Stroke subtype
    Infarct6.9 (5.8 to 8.3)16.6 (14.6 to 18.9)25.7 (21.9 to 29.9)
    Primary intracerebral haemorrhage7.7 (4.8 to 12.2)16.5 (11.6 to 23.1)19.5 (13.6 to 27.6)
    Subarachnoid haemorrhage4.7 (2.0 to 11.0)4.7 (2.0 to 11.0)7.5 (3.0 to 17.9)
    Undefined11.9 (6.5 to 21.2)21.6 (13.6 to 33.3)43.4 (25.5 to 66.8)
Risk factors
    No transient ischaemic attack7.0 (5.9 to 8.4)15.4 (13.4 to 17.6)24.9 (21.4 to 28.8)
    Previous transient ischaemic attack9.5 (6.5 to 13.7)22.0 (16.9 to 28.5)26.5 (19.0 to 36.1)
    No hypertension6.6 (4.9 to 8.8)12.6 (10.0 to 15.8)18.7 (14.7 to 23.7)
    Hypertension7.8 (6.4 to 9.5)18.4 (16.0 to 21.1)27.8 (23.6 to 32.5)
    No diabetes mellitis7.2 (6.0 to 8.6)15.6 (13.6 to 18.0)23.8 (22.2 to 41.3)
    Diabetes mellitis8.4 (5.9 to 11.9)20.0 (15.6 to 25.3)30.6 (22.2 to 41.3)
    No myocardial infarction6.9 (5.8 to 8.3)15.7 (13.7 to 17.8)23.4 (20.1 to 27.1)
    Previous myocardial infarction11/3 (7.7 to 16.6)22.6 (16.6 to 30.3)41.1 (29.1 to 55.8)
    No atrial fibrillation6.9 (5.8 to 8.3)15.4 (13.5 to 17.5)24.6 (21.2 to 28.5)
    Previous atrial fibrillation9.9 (6.8 to 14.3)24.7 (18.6 to 32.4)27.5 (20.0 to 37.1)
    Non-smoker8.1 (6.7 to 9.8)17.5 (15.1 to 20.1)26.4 (21.8 to 31.6)
    Smoker or ex-smoker5.4 (4.0 to 7.4)13.9 (11.2 to 17.1)21.0 (17.1 to 25.6)
Stroke severity indices
    Glasgow Coma Score <83.2 (1.1 to 9.2)10.1 (4.7 to 20.9)10.1 (4.7 to 20.9)
    Glasgow Coma Score 9–127.7 (4.9 to 11.9)13.8 (9.5 to 19.9)18.1 (11.6 to 27.4)
    Glasgow Coma Score 13–157.2 (6.1 to 8.6)16.4 (14.4 to 18.6)25.4 (21.8 to 29.4)
    No motor deficit6.1 (4.1 to 9.1)16.0 (12.3 to 20.6)22.5 (15.6 to 31.8)
    Motor deficit7.4 (6.2 to 8.8)16.3 (14.3 to 18.6)25.1 (21.7 to 29.0)
    No incontinence6.4 (5.2 to 7.9)15.6 (13.4 to 18.0)24.9 (20.9 to 29.3)
    Incontinence8.1 (6.2 to 10.6)15.6 (12.4 to 19.5)21.0 (16.3 to 26.8)