Multivariable analyses: cumulative risk of stroke recurrence at 1, 5 and 10 years*
| 1 year | 5 years | 10 years | ||||
| HR (95% CI) | p Value | HR (95% CI) | p Value | HR (95% CI) | p Value | |
| Age group | ||||||
| >65 | 1 | 0.79 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.04† |
| 65–74 | 0.90 (0.55 to 4.62) | 1.10 (0.77 to 1.57) | 1.36 (0.98 to 1.87) | |||
| >75 | 1.05 (0.63 to 5.17) | 1.37 (0.99 to 1.91) | 1.50 (1.10 to 2.05) | |||
| Gender | ||||||
| Male | 1 | 0.07† | 1 | 0.58 | 1 | 0.48 |
| Female | 1.40 (0.98 to 2.00) | 1.08 (0.82 to 1.42) | 1.09 (0.85 to 1.41) | |||
| Ethnicity | ||||||
| White | 1 | 0.90 | 1 | 0.52 | 1 | 0.60 |
| Black | 0.90 (0.55 to 1.48) | 1.20 (0.85 to 1.68) | 1.17 (0.85 to 1.62) | |||
| Other | 1.06 (0.48 to 2.35) | 1.22 (0.69 to 2.15) | 1.15 (0.66 to 1.98) | |||
| Socio-economic status | ||||||
| Non-manual | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 0.66 | 1 | 0.71 |
| Manual | 1.25 (0.82 to 1.90) | 1.11 (0.81 to 1.51) | 1.01 (0.76 to 1.34) | |||
| Unknown | 0.97 (0.44 to 2.12) | 0.89 (0.49 to 1.63) | 0.80 (0.48 to 1.43) | |||
| Stroke subtype | ||||||
| Infarct | 1 | 0.72 | 1 | 0.51 | 1 | 0.53 |
| Primary intracerebral haemorrhage | 1.29 (0.73 to 2.26) | 1.11 (0.74 to 1.69) | 0.99 (0.66 to 1.48) | |||
| Subarachnoid haemorrhage | 1.05 (0.31 to 3.57) | 0.44 (0.14 to 1.40) | 0.47 (0.17 to 1.28) | |||
| Undefined | 1.42 (0.62 to 3.27) | 1.00 (0.49 to 2.03) | 1.01 (0.54 to 1.91) | |||
| Risk factors | ||||||
| No transient ischaemic attack | 1 | 0.68 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 0.61 |
| Previous transient ischaemic attack | 1.11 (0.69 to 1.78) | 1.26 (0.89 to 1.78) | 1.09 (0.78 to 1.52) | |||
| No hypertension | 1 | 0.56 | 1 | 0.01† | 1 | 0.03† |
| Hypertension | 1.12 (0.76 to 1.65) | 1.47 (1.08 to 1.99) | 1.38 (1.04 to 1.82) | |||
| No diabetes mellitis | 1 | 0.79 | 1 | 0.10 | 1 | 0.14 |
| Diabetes mellitis | 1.06 (0.68 to 1.68) | 1.31 (0.95 to 1.81) | 1.26 (0.93 to 1.71) | |||
| No myocardial infarction | 1 | 0.02† | 1 | 0.09† | 1 | 0.02† |
| Previous myocardial infarction | 1.73 (1.08 to 2.78) | 1.39 (0.95 to 2.03) | 1.50 (1.06 to 2.11) | |||
| No atrial fibrillation | 1 | 0.03† | 1 | <0.01† | 1 | 0.01† |
| Previous atrial fibrillation | 1.61 (1.04 to 2.47) | 1.79 (1.29 to 2.49) | 1.51 (1.09 to 2.09) | |||
| Non-smoker | 1 | 0.61 | 1 | 0.55 | 1 | 0.46 |
| Smoker or ex-smoker | 0.90 (0.60 to 1.35) | 1.10 (0.81 to 1.50) | 1.11 (0.84 to 1.48) | |||
| Stroke severity indices | ||||||
| Glasgow Coma Score <8 | 1 | 0.56 | 1 | 0.61 | 1 | 0.63 |
| Glasgow Coma Score 9–12 | 1.48 (0.49 to 4.46) | 0.99 (0.44 to 2.23) | 1.01 (0.45 to 2.24) | |||
| Glasgow Coma Score 13–15 | 1.71 (0.61 to 4.84) | 1.23 (0.58 to 2.62) | 1.21 (0.59 to 2.48) | |||
| No motor deficit | 1 | 0.16 | 1 | 0.60 | 1 | 0.89 |
| Motor deficit | 1.46 (0.86 to 2.47) | 0.91 (0.64 to 1.30) | 0.98 (0.70 to 1.37) | |||
| No incontinence | 1 | 0.52 | 1 | 0.72 | 1 | 0.54 |
| Incontinence | 1.13 (0.78 to 1.65) | 1.06 (0.79 to 1.42) | 1.10 (0.82 to 1.48) | |||
*Analyses restricted to patients without missing values.
†Variables included in the final model (p<0.10). All other values recorded immediately prior to removal from the model.
CI, confidence interval; HR, hazard ratio.