Table 3

Multiple regression model for outcome at long term follow-up derived with stepwise model selection procedure: fitted regression model including predictors with p≤0.5 to enter; p<0.1 to stay in the model

EstimateSEp Value
Physical outcome* model fit (logistic regression): R2=0.51
Baseline variables
 EDSS at baseline1.200.22<0.0001
 MRI T2 BOD at baseline (cm2)
On-RCT variables
 Actual EDSS change from baseline0.860.21<0.0001
 Annualised relapse rate0.520.230.025
Cognitive outcome model fit (linear regression): R2=0.49
Baseline variables
 EDSS at baseline–0.990.25<0.0001
 Premorbid IQ0.120.0350.0007
 MRI T2 BOD at baseline (cm2)–
 Third ventricular width at baseline (mm)–0.410.160.014
On-RCT variables
 Actual EDSS change from baseline–0.670.240.007
 Change, third ventricular width (mm)–0.870.330.009
  • * Physical outcome=either SPMS or EDSS=6.

  • Cognitive outcome=Cognitive Performance Index (see text).

  • BOD, burden of disease; EDSS, expanded disability status scale score; LTF, long term follow-up; RCT, randomised controlled trial; SPMS, secondary progressive multiple sclerosis.