Table 1

Outcomes of the primary analysis: primary analysis cohort, including patients with SPMS at baseline (n=4862; average follow-up 8.7 years)

Outcome measureModelActual progression
(95% CI)
Predicted progression (natural history)
(95% CI)
Absolute treatment effect
(predicted natural history progression less actual)
(95% CI)
Relative rate of disease progression
(actual divided by predicted natural history) (95% CI)
(1)(2)(3)=(2–1)(4)=(1)/(2)
Rounded EDSS*Markov1.53 (1.48 to 1.58)1.65 (1.63 to 1.67)0.12 (0.07 to 0.17)93% (90% to 96%)
EDSS*MLM1.53 (1.47 to 1.58)2.13 (2.11 to 2.15)0.61 (0.55 to 0.66)72% (69% to 74%)
UtilityMarkov0.122 (0.117 to 0.127)0.161 (0.159 to 0.163)0.039 (0.034 to 0.044)76% (73% to 79%)
MLM0.122 (0.117 to 0.127)0.159 (0.156 to 0.162)0.037 (0.031 to 0.042)77% (74% to 80%)
  • *For the Markov model, half-integer EDSS states are combined with the next lower integer EDSS state. Calculations with the MLM using rounded EDSS values gave almost identical results to those using the full EDSS scale.

  • EDSS, Expanded Disability Status Scale; MLM, multilevel model; SPMS, secondaryprogressive multiple sclerosis.