Region-specific latitudinal gradients, in original and current study
| Current analysis, slope in 2009 (95% CI) | Current analysis, slope in 2018 (95% CI) | |||||
| Main model | Restricted to those with HLA genotype data | Adjusted for HLA-01 genotypes | Main model | Restricted to those with HLA genotype data | Adjusted for HLA-01 genotypes | |
| UK/Ireland | 16.86 (5.93 to 27.78 ) | 16.86 (5.93 to 27.78 ) | 13.88 (−4.23 to 31.99) | 19.60 (6.80 to 32.40 ) | 19.60 (6.80 to 32.40 ) | 16.16 (−4.56 to 36.88) |
| Scandinavia/North Atlantic | −1.39 (−4.01 to 1.23) | −5.07 (−13.35 to 3.22) | −6.22 (−17.17 to 4.73) | −1.41 (−4.17 to 1.34) | −6.34 (−18.17 to 5.48) | −6.98 (−20.71 to 6.75) |
| Atlantic Coast/Central Europe | 13.12 (7.40 to 18.83 ) | 10.69 (5.40 to 15.99 ) | 15.08 (4.03 to 26.13 ) | 17.59 (8.51 to 26.67 ) | 14.12 (6.16 to 22.09 ) | 20.46 (3.37 to 37.54 ) |
| Italian region | − 10.33 (−17.48 to − 3.17 ) | − 10.33 (−17.48 to − 3.17 ) | 6.82 (−70.81 to 84.44) | − 15.58 (−26.90 to − 4.26 ) | − 15.58 (−26.90 to − 4.26 ) | 11.17 (−115.68 to 138.03) |
| Eastern Europe | −0.20 (−5.06 to 4.66) | 0.26 (−5.44 to 5.97) | −0.40 (−13.69 to 12.90) | −0.27 (−6.86 to 6.33) | 0.37 (−7.65 to 8.39) | −0.59 (−20.21 to 19.03) |
Slope (95% CI) represents change in prevalence per 100 000 persons per degree latitude at regional midpoint latitude. Results in boldface denote statistical significance (p<0.05). All analyses adjusted for prevalence year, use of systematic diagnostic criteria and inclusion of possible cases. Study prevalence estimates time-corrected to 2009.