Survival and univariate analysis for early predictors of time to first relapse and time to long-term disability outcomes
| Time to first relapse (months) | Time to visual disability (months) | Time to EDSS score of 4 (months) | Time to cognitive impairment (months) | |||||||||||||
| Median survival time (IQR)* | P value (log rank) | HR (95% CI) | P value | Median survival time (IQR)* | P value (log rank) | HR (95% CI) | P value | Median survival time (IQR)* | P value (log rank) | HR (95% CI) | P value | Median survival time (IQR)* | P value (log rank) | HR (95% CI) | P value | |
| Sex | ||||||||||||||||
| Male | 16 (5–17) | 1 (reference) | 176 (6-NR) | 1 (reference) | NR (54–NR) | 1 (reference) | NR (38– NR) | 1 (reference) | ||||||||
| Female | 11 (4–26) | ns | 1.34 (0.47 to 3.87) | ns | 171 (79–367) | ns | 0.70 (0.19 to 2.48) | ns | NR (199–NR) | ns | 1.05 (0.12 to 8.57 | ns | NR (127– NR) | ns | 0.65 (0.14 to 2.99) | ns |
| Age at disease onset (years) | ||||||||||||||||
| <12 | 5 (2–16) | 1 (reference) | 176 (6–367) | 1 (reference) | 253 (115–NR) | 1 (reference) | 240 (240– NR) | 1 (reference) | ||||||||
| 12–18 | 17 (9–34) | 0.023 | 0.49 (0.25 to 0.93) | 0.03 | NR (120– NR) | 0.076 | 0.44 (0.17 to 1.14) | 0.093 | NR (NR–NR) | ns | 0.53 (0.14 to 1.99) | ns | NR (89– NR) | ns | 1.28 (0.38 to 4.26) | ns |
| Race | ||||||||||||||||
| Black | 17 (5–37) | 1 (reference) | NR (171–NR) | 1 (reference) | NR (199–NR) | 1 (reference) | NR (150– NR) | 1 (reference) | ||||||||
| Asian | 14 (4–26) | 1.45 (0.62 to 3.37) | ns | 176 (120–NR) | 1.90 (0.42 to 8.82) | ns | NR (NR–NR) | NA | – | NR (89– NR) | 0.39 (0.07 to 2.22) | ns | ||||
| White | 6 (3–16) | ns | 1.78 (0.87 to 3.63) | ns | 79 (6–367) | 0.036 | 4.10 (1.13 to 14.8) | 0.032 | 253 (115–NR) | 0.054 | 1.07 (0.28 to 4.06) | ns | 240 (127– NR) | ns | 0.72 (0.20 to 2.58) | ns |
| Coexistent autoimmune diseases | ||||||||||||||||
| Absent | 13 (4–34) | 1 (reference) | 367 (86–NR) | 1 (reference) | NR (199–NR) | 1 (reference) | 240 (127–NR) | 1 (reference) | ||||||||
| Present | 4 (2–17) | ns | 2.44 (0.91 to 6.54) | ns | 176 (38–176) | ns | 1.99 (0.56 to 7.13) | ns | NR (8–NR) | ns | 2.33 (0.46 to 11.8) | ns | NR (9–NR) | ns | 1.29 (0.28 to 5.92) | ns |
| Prodromal symptoms | ||||||||||||||||
| Absent | 11 (3–24) | 1 (reference) | 176 (38–NR) | 1 (reference) | NR (199–NR) | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) | ||||||||
| Present | 13 (5–36) | ns | 0.80 (0.39 to 1.66) | ns | 171 (171–367) | ns | 0.80 (0.28 to 2.28) | ns | 253 (115–NR) | ns | 1.20 (0.30 to 4.81) | ns | 150 (41–240) | ns | 2.73 (0.87 to 8.50) | ns |
| Onset symptoms, ON | ||||||||||||||||
| Absent | 11 (4–26) | 1 (reference) | 367 (367–NR) | 1 (reference) | NR (199–NR) | 1 (reference) | NR (150- NR) | 1 (reference) | ||||||||
| Present | 13 (5–24) | ns | 0.88 (0.47 to 1.64) | ns | 86 (6–171) | 0.0002 | 7.80 (2.2 to 27.7) | 0.002 | NR (NR–NR) | ns | 0.69 (0.16 to 2.97) | ns | NR (89- NR) | ns | 1.43 (0.43 to 4.79) | ns |
| TM | ||||||||||||||||
| Absent | 12 (4–24) | 1 (reference) | 171 (79–367) | 1 (reference) | 253 (199– NR) | 1 (reference) | 240 (127– NR) | 1 (reference) | ||||||||
| Present | 7 (4–34) | ns | 0.99 (0.49 to 2.00) | ns | NR (38–NR) | ns | 0.90 (0.29 to 2.82) | ns | NR (8– NR) | ns | 1.58 (0.39 to 6.43) | ns | NR (72– NR) | ns | 0.98 (0.26 to 3.70) | ns |
| BS | ||||||||||||||||
| Absent | 10 (5–29) | 1 (reference) | 120 (15–176) | 1 (reference) | 253 (253–NR) | 1 (reference) | 240 (89- NR) | 1 (reference) | ||||||||
| Present | 12 (3–26) | ns | 0.90 (0.47 to 1.70) | ns | NR (171– NR) | 0.067 | 0.39 (0.13 to 1.11) | 0.078 | NR (199–NR) | ns | 1.25 (0.33 to 4.73) | ns | NR (127- NR) | ns | 0.70 (0.22 to 2.22) | ns |
| CS | ||||||||||||||||
| Absent | 9 (4–24) | 1 (reference) | 120 (36–NR) | 1 (reference) | NR (199– NR) | 1 (reference) | NR (NR - NR) | 1 (reference) | ||||||||
| Present | 17 (4–36) | ns | 0.80 (0.39 to 1.65) | ns | 367 (171–367) | 0.072 | 0.34 (0.10 to 1.20) | 0.095 | 253 (253– NR) | ns | 1.63 (0.40 to 6.55) | ns | 150 (72–240) | 0.035 | 3.22 (1.02 to 10.2) | 0.046 |
| Multifocal | ||||||||||||||||
| Absent | 8 (1–204) | 1 (reference) | 176 (79–367) | 1 (reference) | NR (253– NR) | 1 (reference) | NR (240– NR) | 1 (reference) | ||||||||
| Present | 13 (2–127) | ns | 0.83 (0.37 to 1.81) | ns | 86 (6–171) | ns | 1.70 (0.63 to 4.63) | ns | NR (115– NR) | ns | 1 to 35 (0.33 to 5.45) | ns | 127 (72–150) | ns | 2.07 (0.65 to 6.57) | ns |
| Onset severity | ||||||||||||||||
| Mild | 11 (4–24) | 1 (reference) | NR (NR-NR) | 1 (reference) | NR (NR–NR) | 1 (reference) | NR (NR– NR) | 1 (reference) | ||||||||
| Severe | 17 (6–37) | ns | 1.86 (0.77 to 4.45) | ns | 171 (15–367) | 0.032 | 6.77 (0.90 to 51.3) | 0.064 | 253 (199– NR) | ns | 1.90 (0.24 to 15.2) | ns | 240 (89–NR) | no | 3.88 (0.50 to 30.3) | ns |
| Onset AT | ||||||||||||||||
| No | 9 (4–36) | ns | 1 (reference) | 171 (120–367) | 1 (reference) | NR (253– NR) | 1 (reference) | 240 (89– NR) | 1 (reference) | |||||||
| Yes | 13 (4–26) | 1.15 (0.59 to 2.24) | ns | 171 (36–NR) | ns | 2.19 (0.71-6-81) | ns | NR (199– NR) | ns | 1.53 (0.35 to 6.70) | ns | NR (127– NR) | ns | 0.91 (0.26 to 3.17) | ns | |
| II line AT | ||||||||||||||||
| Not required | 9 (4–24) | 1 (reference) | 176 (36–367) | 1 (reference) | not applicable NA (199– NA) | 1 (reference) | NR (240–R) | 1 (reference) | ||||||||
| Required | 24 (13–37) | ns | 0.64 (0.29 to 1.40) | ns | 171 (86–171) | ns | 0.65 (0.14 to 2.88) | ns | NA (NA–NA) | ns | 2.20 (0.41 to 11.7) | ns | 127 (17–127) | 0.035 | 3.99 (1.11 to 14.4) | 0.034 |
| Time to IS (months) | – | – | 0.99 (0.99 to 1.00) | ns | – | – | 0.98 (0.97 to 0.99) | 0.031 | – | – | 0.99 (0.98 to 1.00) | ns | – | – | 0.99 (0.98 to 1.0) | ns |
Log-rank test of Kaplan-Meier curves and univariate Cox proportional hazard model analysis of predictors of time to first relapse, to visual disability, to EDSS score of 4 and to cognitive impairment.
– indicates empty space when the statistical test was not applicable.
IQR ranges between 25° and 75° percentile.
*Estimated from Kaplan-Meier curves.
II line AT, plasma exchange and/or intravenous immunoglobulins; AT, acute-onset attack therapy; BS, brainstem syndrome; CS, cerebral syndrome; EDSS, Expanded Disability Status Scale; IS, immunosuppression; NR, not reached; ns, not significant; ON, optic neuritis; TM, transverse myelitis.