Background and purpose: The efficacy of carotid endarterectomy (CEA) in symptomatic patients with > 70% stenosis is accepted. The stroke risk of asymptomatic patients may not justify surgical intervention. The aim of this study is to use natural history data from a single unit to identify asymptomatic patients who would benefit from CEA.
Methods: Five hundred and sixty-four patients attending for duplex ultrasound assessment of the internal carotid artery between 1986 and 1993 were retrospectively identified as focally asymptomatic with > 40% ipsilateral stenosis. Patients were traced using hospital records, family practitioner databases and the Office of Population of Census and Surveys. The number of strokes, transient ischaemic attacks and cause of death were determined. Exclusions were 15 (2.7%) asymptomatic occlusions and 49 patients (8.7%) who underwent surgery for asymptomatic disease.
Results: Thirteen patients (2.6%) were not traced, leaving 487 study patients. The average follow-up was 41 months (range, 1-120 months). Mean presentation age was 69 years (S.D. 8.9), and the male to female ratio was 3:2. One hundred and fifty-six (32%) patients died. Forty-three patients suffered strokes, of whom two had bilateral strokes. In total there were 16 (i/p) strokes, 25 (c/l) strokes and four strokes undetermined. The average yearly stroke rate was 2.74 per 100 person years and the (i/p) rate 1.02 per hundred person years. There was no effect of age, sex or degree of stenosis on stroke. The presence of bilateral disease did increase the risk of stroke (rel risk 2.35, p = 0.029) but not ipsilateral stroke (rel risk 1.6, p = 0.39). Patients with unilateral asymptomatic carotid disease had an all stroke rate of less than 5% in the first year after presentation and this was unaffected by degree of stenosis. In patients with bilateral disease the stroke rate in the first year after presentation increased with degree of stenosis to a stroke rate of 9.6 per 100 person years in patients with > 90% contralateral stenosis.
Conclusions: This data suggests that CEA will not benefit patients with unilateral asymptomatic disease. Patients with bilateral disease warrant inclusion in clinical trials.